Frei Betto: «My prediction is that there will not be any military attack by the US against Cuba»
The writer and philosopher analyzes what can be expected of the future of the US government strategy of energy strangulation against Cuba.
Cuba is facing one of its worst crises since the hardening of the economic blockade set by the United States. Since January 11, a week after the kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, congress member Cilia Flores, by the US government of Donald Trump, the United States has prohibited oil shipping to the island.
Because the supply of electricity in Cuba depends on a thermal plant network, oil scarcity has provoked an energy crisis. Everyday life of the population has been transformed by blackouts that last hours, paralyzing the functioning of cities, causing challenging problems of food supply and affecting the health system, which leads to a humanitarian crisis.
In an interview with Brasil de fato, the writer and philosopher Frei Betto shares that, despite all the pressures, Cuba will continue being resilient and that the actual geopolitical situation in the United States weakens the possibilities of a military attack against Cuba. “My prediction is that there will not be a US military attack against Cuba. First, because this quagmire in which Trump is in with Iran forces US strategists to rethink how to deal with the countries they intend to subjugate. And second, because of Cuba’s geographic proximity to the US, they must think carefully, let's suppose Cuba still has missiles. One missile from Cuba could easily reach Florida.”
Betto explains that this strategy that Trump applies to extremes is not new for the Cuban people, forged through struggle and resistance throughout its history. He mentions how US interventions have strengthened the Cuban Revolution of 1959 and remembers the invasion of Bay of Pigs, when mercenaries acting in the name of the US government tried to invade Cuba and were defeated.
“Since then, president Kennedy, who unfortunately will go down in history, for now, as a democrat when he was not one at all, decided to suffocate Cuba through hunger. What Trump is now taking to the extreme was, in reality, a decision Kennedy made in 1962: “Let the Cubans starve, let’s create a blockade so they can’t get essential supplies.” And so, this blockade has lasted 67 years,” he says.
Given Cuba’s oil dependence, Trump decided to attack precisely this front. “The island consumes 100.000 oil barrels per day and can only produce between 30.000 and 40.000. Therefore, there is a deficit of 60.000”, explains Frei Betto.
Against this backdrop, the solidarity of countries such as Mexico has been fundamental, but the threat of sanctions could slow down these initiatives. “The president of Mexico [Cláudia Sheinbaum], who is an example of solidarity with Cuba and has sent several ships with supplies, including medical material, medicine and food, declared that she could not continue to send oil because Mexico could not support a tariff increase by the United States.”
Frei Betto also comments on Brazil's relief efforts and their limitations. “Brazil has provided extraordinary support, both in food and medicine. Lula's government has been extremely generous in sending supplies to Cuba. But [when it comes to oil] our hands are tied, because Fernando Henrique [Cardoso, former president] privatized a part of Petrobras that is now under the administration of the New York Stock Exchange,” he criticizes.
